On Holliday

I thought long and hard (that's what she said) about using a vacation/festival-related pun. But then I realized that I didn't suck at life and bad writing. Maybe the latter.

My A's traded for Matt Holliday. WTF? This the team that ripped my puny heart out when I learned they had dealt Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder within weeks of each other. And then ripped through the scar tissue to jettison Danny Haren. This among the myriad of small-market minded decisions that see high-talent and high-priced players leave the East Bay. Some A's fans miss said players like crazy (see above), some not so much (riod ragers like Giambi and Tejada).

But I digest. We just landed arguably the best bat on the trade or free agent market. This is doubly notable considering how putrid the A's offense was last year. I attended one game in Oakland the past September and they were shut down by the magnificent Dustin Nippert (read: not magnificent). Last year, Oakland was 27th in runs scored per game (a stinky 4.01). Holliday is sure to change the make up of the A's lineup. Let's explore how. Together.

Last year, Matt Holliday was ranked the 9th most valuable player in all of baseball according to baseball prospectus based on the value called VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). VOPR essentially compares a players statistics to that of the average ball player. The higher the VORP, the better the hitter/pitcher is than the average player. In 2008, Holliday was more valuable than the AL MVP, Dustin Pedroia. What did he do to accomplish such lofty numbers, you ask? Oh, he was only 3rd in the NL in batting average (.321), 4th in on base % (.409) and 5th in OPS (.947). If you're wondering, all of those numbers would have led the A's by leaps and bounds. That's right leaps AND bounds.

Holliday will bat third in Oakland's lineup, most likely in front of Jack Cust. But there is an argument to be made to plop Custy in front of Holliday to give the latter more RBI opportunities. I can only assume that manger Bob Geren will toy with this for the first few weeks of the season to see which works best.

But as for numerical impact on the A's lineup, look no further than Holliday's awesome 127 runs created last season. The next highest team performer on the A's was Cust, at 94. With Holliday in left field, Cust will move to the DH spot for most of the season, leaving both in the lineup. For argument's sake, let's say that Holliday is replacing 80 runs created worth of offense between all the other players that started in LF for the A's. That's an arbitrary difference of 47 RC. Plug that into the A's 4.01 runs scored/game last year and you get a boost to 4.30 RC/G. Obviously that exercise was crude and inaccurate, but you get the idea. Holliday is good.

Welcome, friend

This blog was birthed to create a place to mash topics about America's pastime and America's engine. We'll serve different roles on this blog, between discussing the topics we know and asking questions about the ones we don't. On this magical tour, I'll be guiding you through the baseball world while my counterparts will separately tackle politics and 'junk'. Part blog and part Q&A, it's not your average blog. Okay, maybe it is.

I've realized that the Extra Innings package is crack to the already baseball addled mind. The ability to flip back and forth between games with the greatest of ease increases my baseball ADD. But in an enjoyable way.

But all this does is give me the option to either enjoy the best game of the night (in this case, Cubs/Brewers) or feed my fantasy baseball addiction. But that's for another day. Tonight, the Cubs are in line to stretch their lead to four games over the Brew Crew. The games have had a playoff atmosphere and good pitching matchups (although Dempster v Parra isn't the crown jewel of the evening) but these are teams with vastly different profiles. Let's explore together.

Looking behind the won loss record, the Cubs have been the far superior team. They currently have a +118 run differential (runs scores minus runs against) which is the best in the National League by 48 runs. I don't need to tell you; that's silly. The Brewers on the other hand have a +22 run differential. Hmm. It's a simplified way of looking at their results, but baseball prospectus puts the Cubs odds at winning the division at 73%, largely based on their ability to put runs across the plate and keep opponents off the board. The Brewers odds to win the division are 21% (but with 44% odds to claim the wild card).